diff --git a/notebooks/june_26th_exploration.clj b/notebooks/june_26th_exploration.clj new file mode 100644 index 0000000..311212b --- /dev/null +++ b/notebooks/june_26th_exploration.clj @@ -0,0 +1,124 @@ +(ns june-26th-exploration + (:require [humidity.core :refer [resolution]])) + + ;; # Exploration of what happened on 26th June this year + ;; + ;; On June 26th 2026, at the peak of the second heatwave, there is reported to have been sea mist coming ashore in southern England. What does that imply about inland humidity later in the day, and what happens if we project that foreward to the 2056 numbers? + ;; + ;; ## The Newquay → Bristol axis + ;; + ;; Wind in Newquay starts southerly around dawn and veers south westerly through the morning, freshening from 17 kph at dawn to 28 at 10:50 and then veering further west and decreasing through the afternoon. + ;; + ;; So that means air from Newquay will have been more or less over Bristol or Cardiff by 15:00. + ;; + ;; Sunrise at Newquay was 05:06, sunset 21:31. + + ;; [Data](https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/plymouth/EGHQ/date/2026-6-26) +(def newquay-conditions-0650 + (resolution :relative-humidity 100 + :pressure-millibars 998 + :temperature-celsius 18)) + +;; [Data](https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/bristol/EGGD/date/2026-6-26) + +(def bristol-conditions-1500 + (resolution :relative-humidity 65 + :pressure-millibars 993 + :temperature-celsius 26)) + +(def projected-conditions-bristol-1500 + (resolution :absolute-humidity (* (newquay-conditions-0650 :absolute-humidity) + (/ (bristol-conditions-1500 :volume) + (newquay-conditions-0650 :volume))) + :pressure-millibars (bristol-conditions-1500 :pressure-millibars) + :temperature-celsius (bristol-conditions-1500 :temperature-celsius))) + +;; ### So what just happened? +;; +;; Firstly, the temperature of the air increased from 19° C to 26°C, an increase of 7° C. +;; +;; Second, the pressure actually fell slightly from 998 to 993 millibars (why?). So the change in volume of the air due to the changes in temperature and pressure was + +(float (/ (bristol-conditions-1500 :volume) + (newquay-conditions-0650 :volume))) + +;; a very small change. Nevertheless, we've plugged that change into our projection. The actual relative humidity at Bristol at 15:00 as recorded by Wunderground was + +(bristol-conditions-1500 :relative-humidity) + +;; whereas our projection is + +(projected-conditions-bristol-1500 :relative-humidity) + +;; which is somewhat conservative. The air over Bristol is wetter than I would have expected if this is the 'same air' as came ashore at Newquay. +;; +;; ## The Weymouth → Oxford axis +;; +;; Bristol is sort-of coastal, and not where the highest temperatures are to be expected. By contrast, Oxford is more inland, and close to where the hottest temperatures [projected by the Met Office for 2056](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/blog/2026/uk-could-see-45c-by-2056-scientists-reflect-on-1976-heatwave-anniversary) are to be found. +;; +;; So let's examine that axis. The interesting time is 09:00, when [air is coming ashore with a relative humidity of 97%](https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/weymouth/EGDP/date/2026-6-26). But note that very humid air was continuing to come ashore all through the day. +;; +;; The wind is west-south-west, so not blowing directly towards Oxford, but I'm going to assume it was since that's certainly feasible. It was blowing 26 kph at 09:00, increasing to 33 kph by 14:00. So it would travel the 150Km to Oxford in 6 hours. + +(def weymouth-conditions-0900 (resolution :relative-humidity 97 + :pressure-millibars 1008.9 + :temperature-celsius 17 )) + +;; [Data](https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/oxford/EGTK/date/2026-6-26) + +(def oxford-conditions-1520 (resolution :relative-humidity 34 + :pressure-millibars 1004.18 + :temperature-celsius 33)) + +(def projected-conditions-oxford-1520 + (resolution :absolute-humidity (* (weymouth-conditions-0900 :absolute-humidity) + (/ (oxford-conditions-1520 :volume) + (weymouth-conditions-0900 :volume))) + :pressure-millibars (oxford-conditions-1520 :pressure-millibars) + :temperature-celsius (oxford-conditions-1520 :temperature-celsius))) + +;; ### What happened here? + +;; Here the air is substantially drier than expected. The absolute and relative humidity in the observed data is + +[(oxford-conditions-1520 :absolute-humidity) (oxford-conditions-1520 :relative-humidity)] + +;; whereas in the projected data it is + +[(projected-conditions-oxford-1520 :absolute-humidity) (projected-conditions-oxford-1520 :relative-humidity)] + +;; if this is 'the same air', then we've lost about 120 grammes of water per cubic metre of air Again there's +;; a change in volume + +(/ (oxford-conditions-1520 :volume) + (weymouth-conditions-0900 :volume)) + +;; but, again, we've accounted for that. + +;; So I don't know what's happening and, again, my understanding may be wrong. I would expect air over land in hot weather to show a slight increase in absolute humidity from evaporating dew, and from transpiration from green plants. Here, we're seeing a substantial decrease, and there's no precipitation in the record. +;; +;; I don't understand this. + +;; ## The 2056 projection + +;; In the video embedded in their blog, the Met Office show their projected minimum temperatures for their 2056 'hottest day' [at 46 seconds in](https://youtu.be/YXwk3Eqa8l8?si=Ypc_XpqOIDsNUv61&t=46). I'm going to assume this is at dawn. + +;; Weymouth is shown as between 17° C and 20° C; and by interpolation I'm going to take 19° C. + +(def weymouth-model-0600 (resolution :temperature-celsius 19 + :pressure-millibars (weymouth-conditions-0900 :pressure-millibars) + :relative-humidity (weymouth-conditions-0900 :relative-humidity))) + +;; Oxford is close to the peak temperature of 45° C shown on the Met Office's projected map. They don't give a time for this, but I'm going to assume mid-afternoon. + +(def oxford_model-1500 (resolution :temperature-celsius 45 + :pressure-millibars (oxford-conditions-1520 :pressure-millibars) + :absolute-humidity (weymouth-model-0600 :absolute-humidity))) + +;; Note that, the conditions I've assumed here — that the absolute humidity will remain constant as the air moves from Weymouth to Oxford — are worse than what in the observed data, where the air mysteriously dried. + +;; Nevertheless, despite the high absolute humidity, the relative humidity remains at a survivable level + +(oxford_model-1500 :wet-bulb-temperature) + +;; I think that this is the absolute 'worst case' for the Met Office projection, and it clearly does not imply a mass deaths event; so I was mistaken. \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/project.clj b/project.clj index e88fc90..268d971 100644 --- a/project.clj +++ b/project.clj @@ -5,9 +5,10 @@ :doc/format :markdown} :output-path "docs/codox" :source-uri "https://github.com/simon-brooke/humidity/blob/master/{filepath}#L{line}"} - :dependencies [[org.clojure/clojure "1.12.5"]] + :dependencies [[org.clojure/clojure "1.12.5"] + [io.github.nextjournal/clerk "0.18.1158"]] :deploy-repositories [["releases" :clojars] - ["snapshots" :clojars]] + ["snapshots" :clojars]] :description "Functions to compute relative humidity, absolute humidity, wet bulb temperature, and other values related to humidity of air, given partial data."