diff --git a/bench/dump-mandelbrot-emit.janet b/bench/dump-mandelbrot-emit.janet
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..7b196c7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/bench/dump-mandelbrot-emit.janet
@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+# Dump the Janet that jolt's backend emits for the mandelbrot hot fns, so we can
+# A/B it against bench/mandelbrot-hand.janet and localize the ~1.43x jolt-over-
+# hand-Janet gap measured in the foundational-runtime spike (jolt-5vsp).
+(import ../src/jolt/api :as api)
+(import ../src/jolt/backend :as backend)
+(import ../src/jolt/reader :as reader)
+
+(def ctx (api/init-cached {:compile? true}))
+(put (ctx :env) :direct-linking? true)
+(put (ctx :env) :inline? true)
+(api/eval-string ctx "(ns mandelbrot)")
+
+(def count-point-src
+  "(defn count-point [cr ci cap] (loop [i 0 zr 0.0 zi 0.0] (if (or (>= i cap) (> (+ (* zr zr) (* zi zi)) 4.0)) i (recur (inc i) (+ (- (* zr zr) (* zi zi)) cr) (+ (* 2.0 (* zr zi)) ci)))))")
+
+(def run-src
+  "(defn run [n] (let [cap 200 nd (* 1.0 n)] (loop [y 0 acc 0] (if (< y n) (let [ci (- (/ (* 2.0 y) nd) 1.0) row (loop [x 0 a 0] (if (< x n) (let [cr (- (/ (* 2.0 x) nd) 1.5)] (recur (inc x) (+ a (count-point cr ci cap)))) a))] (recur (inc y) (+ acc row))) acc))))")
+
+(api/eval-string ctx count-point-src)
+(api/eval-string ctx run-src)
+
+(defn emit [src]
+  (string/format "%p" (backend/emit-ir ctx (backend/analyze-form ctx (reader/parse-string src)))))
+
+(print "===== count-point emitted Janet =====")
+(print (emit count-point-src))
+(print "\n===== run emitted Janet =====")
+(print (emit run-src))
diff --git a/bench/mandelbrot-hand-rec.janet b/bench/mandelbrot-hand-rec.janet
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..d8e0249
--- /dev/null
+++ b/bench/mandelbrot-hand-rec.janet
@@ -0,0 +1,49 @@
+# mandelbrot — hand-written Janet that MIRRORS jolt's loop-lowering: every loop/
+# recur becomes a self-recursive local closure stored in a var and called once
+# per iteration (see bench/dump-mandelbrot-emit.janet). If this lands at jolt's
+# ~219ms (vs the while-loop mandelbrot-hand.janet's ~153ms), the ~1.43x jolt-
+# over-hand-Janet gap is the recursive-closure loop lowering, not anything else.
+#   janet bench/mandelbrot-hand-rec.janet 200
+
+(defn count-point [cr ci cap]
+  (var loopfn nil)
+  (set loopfn (fn [i zr zi]
+    (if (let [t (>= i cap)] (if t t (> (+ (* zr zr) (* zi zi)) 4)))
+      i
+      (loopfn (+ i 1)
+              (+ (- (* zr zr) (* zi zi)) cr)
+              (+ (* 2 (* zr zi)) ci)))))
+  (loopfn 0 0 0))
+
+(defn run [n]
+  (def cap 200)
+  (def nd (* 1 n))
+  (var yloop nil)
+  (set yloop (fn [y acc]
+    (if (< y n)
+      (let [ci (- (/ (* 2 y) nd) 1)
+            row (do
+                  (var xloop nil)
+                  (set xloop (fn [x a]
+                    (if (< x n)
+                      (let [cr (- (/ (* 2 x) nd) 1.5)]
+                        (xloop (+ x 1) (+ a (count-point cr ci cap))))
+                      a)))
+                  (xloop 0 0))]
+        (yloop (+ y 1) (+ acc row)))
+      acc)))
+  (yloop 0 0))
+
+(defn main [& args]
+  (def n (if (> (length args) 1) (scan-number (get args 1)) 1000))
+  (repeat 2 (run (div n 2)))
+  (def times @[])
+  (var last-r 0)
+  (repeat 3
+    (def t0 (os/clock))
+    (def r (run n))
+    (array/push times (* 1000.0 (- (os/clock) t0)))
+    (set last-r r))
+  (printf "mandelbrot n %d result %d" n last-r)
+  (print "runs: " (string/join (map |(string (/ (math/round (* $ 10.0)) 10.0)) times) " "))
+  (printf "mean: %.1f ms" (/ (sum times) 3)))
diff --git a/bench/mandelbrot-hand.janet b/bench/mandelbrot-hand.janet
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..08c8d53
--- /dev/null
+++ b/bench/mandelbrot-hand.janet
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+# mandelbrot — hand-written idiomatic Janet, same nested loop as bench/mandelbrot.clj.
+# This is the "optimal Janet" leg of the foundational-runtime spike (jolt-5vsp):
+# comparing jolt-emitted Janet vs this vs JVM localizes the 15x compute floor —
+# jolt-backend overhead vs the Janet VM's own floor.
+#
+#   janet bench/mandelbrot-hand.janet 200
+
+(defn count-point [cr ci cap]
+  (var i 0)
+  (var zr 0.0)
+  (var zi 0.0)
+  (while (and (< i cap) (<= (+ (* zr zr) (* zi zi)) 4.0))
+    (def nzr (+ (- (* zr zr) (* zi zi)) cr))
+    (def nzi (+ (* 2.0 (* zr zi)) ci))
+    (set zr nzr)
+    (set zi nzi)
+    (++ i))
+  i)
+
+(defn run [n]
+  (def cap 200)
+  (def nd (* 1.0 n))
+  (var acc 0)
+  (var y 0)
+  (while (< y n)
+    (def ci (- (/ (* 2.0 y) nd) 1.0))
+    (var x 0)
+    (var a 0)
+    (while (< x n)
+      (def cr (- (/ (* 2.0 x) nd) 1.5))
+      (set a (+ a (count-point cr ci cap)))
+      (++ x))
+    (set acc (+ acc a))
+    (++ y))
+  acc)
+
+(defn main [& args]
+  (def n (if (> (length args) 1) (scan-number (get args 1)) 1000))
+  # warmup
+  (repeat 2 (run (div n 2)))
+  (def runs 3)
+  (def times @[])
+  (var last-r 0)
+  (repeat runs
+    (def t0 (os/clock))
+    (def r (run n))
+    (def ms (* 1000.0 (- (os/clock) t0)))
+    (set last-r r)
+    (array/push times ms))
+  (def mean (/ (sum times) runs))
+  (printf "mandelbrot n %d result %d" n last-r)
+  (print "runs: " (string/join (map |(string (/ (math/round (* $ 10.0)) 10.0)) times) " "))
+  (printf "mean: %.1f ms" mean))
diff --git a/docs/foundational-runtime-handoff.md b/docs/foundational-runtime-handoff.md
index fbf4555..65059dd 100644
--- a/docs/foundational-runtime-handoff.md
+++ b/docs/foundational-runtime-handoff.md
@@ -85,7 +85,16 @@ Every other axis adds structural overhead **on top** of that floor.
    (jolt-4x9 element types + jolt-t6r). Helps dispatch. Bounded ceiling (still
    bytecode underneath).
 
-## START HERE — the spike (do this before committing to any lever)
+## START HERE — the spike (DONE — see results)
+
+**The spike ran 2026-06-16. Results: `docs/foundational-runtime-spike-results.md`.**
+Outcome in one line: the 15.4× floor decomposes into a **Janet-VM floor ≈10.8×
+JVM** (the dominant ~70%; only native codegen / lever 1 moves it) plus a **jolt
+loop-lowering ≈1.43×** on top (cheap backend win — `loop`/`recur` is lowered to a
+recursive closure called per iteration; emit Janet `while`+`var`/`set` instead;
+bead **jolt-v28u**). Janet numbers are already unboxed (not a lever). Next: the
+lever-1 jolt-IR→C spike for one hot fn (confirm Janet's incremental native-module
+path first). The original spike instructions are preserved below for context.
 
 **Localize the 15× floor.** Build three `mandelbrot` implementations and compare:
 
diff --git a/docs/foundational-runtime-spike-results.md b/docs/foundational-runtime-spike-results.md
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6bdb242
--- /dev/null
+++ b/docs/foundational-runtime-spike-results.md
@@ -0,0 +1,92 @@
+# Foundational Runtime Spike — Results (the 15× floor, localized)
+
+**Epic:** jolt-5vsp · **Date:** 2026-06-16
+**Spike:** the START HERE section of `docs/foundational-runtime-handoff.md` —
+jolt vs hand-written-Janet vs JVM `mandelbrot`, to localize the ~15× compute
+floor before committing to native codegen (lever 1) vs a backend fix.
+
+## Setup
+
+Three implementations of the same nested mandelbrot loop, all returning the
+identical result (3288753 at n=200, confirming correctness across all legs):
+
+- **jolt-compiled** — `bench/mandelbrot.clj` (`jolt -m mandelbrot 200`, WP + direct-link on)
+- **hand-Janet (`while`)** — `bench/mandelbrot-hand.janet` (idiomatic Janet: `while` + `var`/`set`)
+- **JVM Clojure** — `bench/mandelbrot.clj` on the JVM
+
+Plus a diagnostic fourth leg:
+
+- **hand-Janet (recursive)** — `bench/mandelbrot-hand-rec.janet`: hand Janet that
+  *mirrors jolt's loop lowering* (self-recursive local closure called per
+  iteration), to test whether the loop lowering alone explains jolt's overhead.
+
+Numbers are stable and sandwiched (A/B/A/B); machine noise < 1%.
+
+## The numbers (n=200, mean of 3, after warmup)
+
+| Leg | mean | × JVM |
+|---|---|---|
+| JVM Clojure | 14.2 ms | 1.0× |
+| **hand-Janet (`while`)** | **153.4 ms** | **10.8×** |
+| hand-Janet (recursive, mirrors jolt) | 215.3 ms | 15.2× |
+| **jolt-compiled** | **219.0 ms** | **15.4×** |
+
+## What this localizes
+
+The 15.4× floor **decomposes into two distinct layers**:
+
+1. **Janet VM floor ≈ 10.8× JVM** (70% of the gap). Optimal hand-written Janet —
+   pure `while` loop over unboxed doubles, zero allocation — is still ~11× slower
+   than JVM Clojure. This is the cost of the Janet bytecode VM itself (no JIT, no
+   native code). **Only native codegen (lever 1) can touch this.** It is the
+   dominant share and validates lever 1 as the big structural lever.
+
+2. **jolt backend loop-lowering ≈ 1.43× on top** (the remaining 30%). jolt is
+   `219 / 153 = 1.43×` slower than optimal Janet. The diagnostic leg pins this
+   *entirely* to one cause: jolt lowers every `loop`/`recur` to a **self-recursive
+   local closure called once per iteration**, not a `while` loop. Hand-Janet
+   written that same way (recursive leg) lands at **215 ms ≈ jolt's 219 ms** —
+   so the recursive-closure lowering accounts for essentially all of jolt's
+   backend overhead on pure-compute code.
+
+   See the emitted Janet (`bench/dump-mandelbrot-emit.janet`): `emit-loop`
+   (`src/jolt/backend.janet:210`) produces
+   `(do (var L nil) (set L (fn (i zr zi) … (L (+ i 1) …))) (let (…) (L …)))`
+   and `emit-recur` (`:228`) produces the per-iteration call `(L …)`. It relies
+   on Janet TCO for stack safety, but each iteration still pays a function
+   invocation (frame setup + arg bind) that a `while` loop skips.
+
+## Decision
+
+The handoff posed it as binary (Janet-VM floor *or* backend headroom). It is
+**both**, now sized:
+
+- **Native codegen (lever 1) is the only thing that moves the dominant ~70%.**
+  Confirmed as the big lever. Pursue the incremental jolt-IR→C spike for one hot
+  fn next, per the handoff.
+- **A cheap, localized ~30% win sits in the backend**, independent of any new
+  runtime: lower tail-position `loop`/`recur` with scalar bindings to a Janet
+  `while` + `var`/`set` instead of a recursive closure. Closes the 1.43×, taking
+  `mandelbrot` from 15.4× → ~10.8× JVM. Filed separately (see epic children).
+
+## Open questions answered
+
+- **Are Janet numbers boxed?** No — already unboxed. The `while` leg does pure
+  double arithmetic at a steady 153 ms with no allocation and no GC stutter, and
+  matches the other legs bit-for-bit. Janet's `number` is an immediate IEEE
+  double (stored inline in the Janet value, not heap-allocated). **Unboxing is
+  not a lever; it's done.**
+- **GC share of `binary-trees`** — not measured here (the dev machine swaps
+  heavily, which distorts alloc-heavy benches; the handoff flags this). Size
+  lever 2 on a clean machine. The `mandelbrot` legs are alloc-free so are
+  unaffected and trustworthy.
+- **Janet native-module / incremental C path** — not yet confirmed; this is the
+  gating question for the lever-1 spike (hot fns → C, rest → bytecode).
+
+## Artifacts (kept in `bench/`)
+
+- `mandelbrot-hand.janet` — optimal `while` Janet (the Janet VM floor reference)
+- `mandelbrot-hand-rec.janet` — recursive-closure Janet (the loop-lowering diagnostic)
+- `dump-mandelbrot-emit.janet` — dumps the Janet jolt emits for the hot fns
+
+The bench harness (`bench/run.sh`) ignores these (it iterates a fixed bench list).